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Updated 06-Jan 25-RL

Hi Geopolitics Folk,
 
This Thursday we have our usual monthly meeting, starting at 1.45 at Admiral Rodney: 
 
Our main topic, starting around 2.45, will be led by Geoff: It will be worth reading this page and following some of the suggested links so that you are tuned into our discussion! 
Rik has produced an overview paper on the topic which is also worth a read(opens in a new window)

Was 2007 the pinnacle of ‘Western Liberal Democracies’ power?
 
Since the 2007 financial crash the ‘Western Democracies’ seemingly have declined in economic and political power.
The ‘Western Democracies’ might best be described as the old East-West iron curtain divide, particularly those countries of USA, Canada and Western Europe. This description is subjective and other definitions can be applied.
Some of the events that lead to the question of decline being raised are as follows:
- Rise of China; increase in Russian aggression; US Afghan withdrawal; apparent ineffectiveness of Western sanctions against the likes of Russia, North Korea and Iran
- Stagnating GDP; Euro crisis of 2010; Covid effects on economy and economic recovery; Brexit leaving both UK and EU weaker; widening wealth inequalities
- Rise of global companies, especially Tech companies, whose influence spreads across borders (e.g. Musk)
- Migration issues; Arab spring; Wagner and other mercenary groups undermining previous western influence; Chinese Belt & Road initiative; population demographic dynamics; increase in religious radicalism eg ISIS, Iranian proxies
- Changes in democracy due to things like rise of populism; definitions of what is democracy (China sees itself as ‘Democratic’); western apologetics of history; wokism; election interference by state players and by social media usage/interference; post truth
- Power of NATO challenged by Russia, allies such as Turkey acting independently; Chinese aggression in South China Seas etc
- Anti-globalization measures; decline in multiculturism; increase in protectionism; increase in US isolationism
Some say that Western liberal democracy was flawed from the start (eg MIT document).
Not only the ‘West’ faces challenges, but the challengers also face challenges that impact their abilities to become more dominant.
Is the decline a bad thing? Who for? Who wins and who loses? What will be the new world order?

A few interesting references:
 
Democratic Strain and Popular Discontent in Europe: Responding to the Challenges Facing Liberal Democracies
 
Illiberal, Nativist Populism: Is Economic Insecurity the Cause? | Diamond Democracy

Power, Performance, and Legitimacy | Journal of Democracy
 
"He who says C must say D" — China’s Attempt to Become the "World’s Largest Democracy"
Upholding Democracy in a Post-Western Order | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
When Does Populism Become a Threat to Democracy? | Diamond Democracy
 
Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order | International Security | MIT Press
 
Populism and Liberal Democracy: Populists in Government in Austria, Italy, Poland and Switzerland | Government and Opposition | Cambridge Core
 
Globalization and the changing liberal international order: A review of the literature - ScienceDirect
 
How liberalism became ‘the god that failed’ in eastern Europe | Europe | The Guardian
 
The West Is Not the World | German Marshall Fund of the United States
 
10 Ideas to Fix Democracy
 
Is Liberal Democracy in Decline? | IE Insights
 
lse.ac.uk/european-institute/Assets/Documents/LEQS-Discussion-Papers/LEQSPaper163.pdf
 
dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf

 

 
 

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​Think you might be interested in joining this group?

If interested, click on Contact  Us: The email will go direct to the Webmaster. That’s me, Rik, the Webmaster. I'm happy to be the leader / co-leader, or in time give way to any other member who would like to lead.